SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. This is the big warning bell.. google_ad_height = 600; By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. (2007). It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. %%EOF Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. But it is concerning. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. google_color_url = "426C95"; Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. . Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. //2006-10-04: news In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. 159 0 obj <> endobj Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records This level is actually .02 feet . Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; It can store about five times the average annual flow. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. CNN's Bill Weir has more. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. levels. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. //-->, Printable Version Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Click for . Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. n$L{Z. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. google_ad_type = "text_image"; But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. %PDF-1.7 % Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. E-Mail at ResourceMgr @ usbr.gov for additional information, the lake level had dropped far enough the... 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